How Betting Lines Work — Super Bowl Example - If you are like me, you are not watching the Super Bowl. If you are like me, you are only vaguely aware of it. I had to be reminded yesterday at 4:00 tha...
Monday, November 5, 2012
A Message To America From Reality
Look, I know you're ducking me. It's no secret. I'm not mad or anything. As the property of non contingent existence that permeates the entire material universe I don't really get into drama. That's your problem. And this gets me to my point:
You love pretending I'm not out here. Politically, historically, and culturally... you Americans spend your lives playing an elaborate game of make-believe. Everything from vampire romance to Second Life to the lobbyist industry to creation theory to the unbelievable stories you tell your kids about the people who formed your nation. You're so rich and so spoiled you think even I have to do whatever you say.
Your pundits are great at this: Because of cable and the Internet, they no longer tell you the news. What they do is sell you a product, and that product is a convincing story to make your own personal truth justifiable. Whether you want to believe that 9/11 was an inside job or that Obama's a Kenyan socialist, or climate change is not happening... you can find someone selling it somewhere. But every once in awhile I step in. And that's a great thing. It's an opportunity. Don't miss it, okay?
Many of the people who want Obama to win are predicting that he will win. The people who want him to lose are predicting that he will lose. Nate Silver's blog says Obama has an 86% chance of winning, and that he will probably carry Ohio and Virginia, but not Florida. Over at the National Review, Michael Barone predicts it's going to be a blowout for Romney - 315 to 223. George Will predicts that Romney will win with 321 electoral votes, and that Minnesota will be in his column. Hugh Hewitt actually writes that the Obama team is aware of its pending defeat, and that they are desperately hoping for some kind of miracle.
Paul Bibeau, the guy writing this particular blog wants to remind you that many of these people tried to convince you Sarah Palin was a serious candidate, and that George W. Bush deserved a second term, and that there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. My message is simpler: There will be a score soon. A real score. A judgement from me on which commentators are good at math, and which ones are good at deluding themselves. All I want you to do then... is to pay attention.
It will be an important piece of verifiable information, and a chance to change your thinking about a complicated world. Most of you will ignore me. But not everyone. That small group of people, unafraid of rethinking, of being wrong, of struggling to figure out what the truth is... your whole country depends on them. Wednesday will be their day.
You better hope it's Wednesday, anyway. I'm not telling.