Sunday, August 9, 2015

Going Into Debate Trump Had An Edge With GOP Women And A Disadvantage With Normal Women

We'll see where Donald Trump's numbers go now that the first debate is over. But just before it Trump's impressive lead with female voters in the GOP primary was higher than his lead with the general population. However, his disadvantage with women in a general election match-up against Hillary Clinton was also greater than his disadvantage with the combined population.

The Washington Times reported on it on July 28, citing a Zogby poll that gave him 20 percent of the general vote and 26 percent of the female vote. Bush took second place with 16 percent and 10 percent, respectively. The Times also reported on a Washington Post-ABC poll that gave Trump 23 percent of female GOP voters (Walker came second with 16 percent in that). The Times's explained that it was because Trump was "a family man," a description that is profoundly disturbing.

Trump. A family man. Jesus.

Anyway, Republican women liked Trump more than Republicans generally... But normal women hated him more than normal people generally - although, in fairness, this seems to track with the way normal women hate Republicans, because the drop in points is similiar.

A 7/23-7/30 Quinnipiac poll showing general election match-ups had Trump losing to Clinton by 12 points, compared to Bush who beat her by 1 point and Walker who lost by 1. But that same poll showed Trump losing women to Clinton by 25 points with Bush losing them by 11 and Walker losing by 14.

A 7/22-7/28 McClatchy/Marist poll had Trump losing to Clinton in a general by 16 points with Bush losing by 7 and Walker losing by 6. When only women are counted Trump lost by 22 points, Bush lost by 8, and Walker lost by 16.

Again, these numbers were going into the debate. They were before the flap with Megyn Kelly.

I'll write about the new numbers when they surface.

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