Thursday, August 27, 2015

Q-Poll Matchups Show A Continuing Weakness For Hillary Clinton Among White Women

Back in early August, Politico and the Wall Street Journal both reported on favorability problems Hillary Clinton had among white women. This was particularly disturbing, as the WSJ commented, if you were one of those Democrats who had hoped Clinton would expand Obama's coalition by drawing them in in greater numbers.

The new Quinnipiac poll showing general election matchups indicates the problem hasn't gone away. Clinton does worse among the demo against Bush and Trump than the other Democrats. She pulls even with Biden against Rubio and beats Bernie Sanders in that race by a whopping two points. Here are the numbers:

Clinton/Bush - 38/48  (+10 Bush)
Clinton/Rubio - 42/48 (+6 Rubio)
Clinton/Trump - 41/45 (+4 Trump)

Biden/Bush - 40/45 (+5 Bush)
Biden/Rubio - 40/46 (+6 Rubio)
Biden/Trump - 45/43 (+2 Biden)

Sanders/Bush - 39/44 (+5 Bush)
Sanders/Rubio - 36/44 (+8 Rubio)
Sanders/Trump - 43/43 (Tie)

Even when you run the matchup numbers for women overall, it's not clear that Hillary has an advantage. Biden is slightly more competitive against Bush, and he's equally competitive against Trump. Clinton beats Rubio by a slightly better margin than Biden and does significantly better than Sanders.

Quinnipiac also reports that Biden's general matchup numbers are a little better than that of Clinton's, and that the vice president "has the best favorability rating among top Republican and Democratic candidates."  But Clinton still leads the Democratic field at 45%, with 22% going to Sanders and 18% going to Biden. This number, however, represents a drop for her from 55% in late July.

It's early, most of the numbers are within the margin of error, and it's only one poll. Plus, this group is only a component of a successful Democratic campaign - we need a broad coalition. But still, it's worth noting.

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