Tuesday, March 15, 2016

Today's Primary Includes 5 States, 367 Delegates, And 60.9 Million People Who Will Be Incinerated If Donald Trump Is Elected

The GOP faces one of the most momentous days in its recent history. Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina will cast their votes in the presidential primary. They will award a total of 367 delegates, and they represent a population of 60.9 million people who will absolutely be incinerated in a nuclear maelstrom if Donald Trump becomes president.

The stakes couldn't be higher for Marco Rubio.

In Florida, the senator has what might be a final chance to prove he can defeat Trump. If he can't do this - and right now, the blog 538 gives him only a 2% chance of succeeding - it will be hard to convince people he's a viable candidate. The population there seems to be overwhelmingly in favor of the real estate mogul, who will, because of his aggressiveness and complete unreadiness for the job, undoubtedly escalate tensions with the Russians and Chinese until an intelligence miscalculation kills almost all 20.3 million people in the Sunshine State. Will they reconsider their vote and return to Rubio after survivors have had a chance to wander the cracked pavement, blind from the atomic flash, incoherent from 3rd and 4th burns, their skin a mass of seeping wounds, and their organs shutting down under the unrelenting onslaught of high-energy gamma particles perforating them at unbelievable rates, as if they were being blasted apart at the molecular level? It's possible. And Rubio's young.

John Kasich's odds of a win are better. In Ohio, RealClearPolitics shows him with a 3.4% advantage, and right now 538 gives him an 87% chance of winning that state, blunting Trump's momentum, and continuing the survival of our species for a little while.

But in places like North Carolina and Missouri, Donald Trump continues to poll well partly because he's convinced evangelical Christians to support him over Ted Cruz. They've chosen to overlook Trump's personal life in the hope that he will fight harder for their issues. Also, it's important to note that they literally believe an invisible being is running the entire universe, so they have no idea that it's really possible for all human life to be extinguished - not as part of some divine plan - but as a hideous accident caused by a short-sighted, ignorant man who has no business making foreign policy decisions. They will, of course, realize that their God isn't coming to help as they hurriedly mix lethal amounts of sleeping pills into the sippy-cups of their own children in order to spare them from experiencing the full pain and terror of the oncoming missile attack in the last desperate hour after the emergency broadcast warning breaks into their morning chat shows. But that could change, because Ted Cruz has a good election day ground game.

In the end, though, Trump will almost certainly continue to be the delegate leader. The best chance the Republican Party has to prevent a situation where people are running down the streets of Dayton, Miami, and Chicago, shrieking in fear just as the wave of overpressure sends showers of rubble to crush them like insects and the suction from the firestorm causes the lungs of the survivors to mercifully collapse is a contested convention. They see that as a worst-case scenario.

The bottom line is that all this drama has a chance to bring on the presidency of Hillary Clinton. And Clinton, while she is a seasoned foreign policy operator with years of government experience, first-hand knowledge of the most powerful world leaders, and a stable temperament, is a choice many Republicans simply could not live with.

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4 comments:

  1. I think the most depressing thing I've realised in recent months is that if Trump does win the presidency he still probably wouldn't be the worst US president we've ever had.

    (Hell, I'm currently arguing with myself whether he'd crack the Top 5.)

    ((But worst US president in recent times, for sure))

    ReplyDelete
  2. Yes, #NeverTrump should be changed to #NeverTrumpUnlessItsADemocrat. I've long thought that the GOP establishment's real problem with Trump is not that he's horrible; it's that they don't think he will win. If he wins, there's no problem because what is nuclear war compared to a big tax cut for the rich?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I know! You can use that extra income for the CLASSIEST bomb shelter EVER.

      Delete
    2. Indeedy!

      REAL MEN ain't afraid of no damn nuclear war!

      But paying more taxes? That's SCARY!

      Delete

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