As I write this, the US population is 318.9 million, and right now -- according to Nate Silver's blog, FiveThirtyEight -- about 39.2% of those people are monsters. That's about 125 million bigots walking around grabbing at each other's genitals and spitting on children in this country. A massive horde of folks who'd sell their families into slavery and swap the US Constitution for jerky and scratch-n-win tickets.
Will this group of what are clearly America's Fredos take over? In a way they already have, because they picked the biggest asshole among themselves and that asshole is a serious contender for the most powerful office in the government. This is partly due to politics within the Republican Party and solid evidence that the Republican Party needs to be outlawed and its members subjected to a McCarthy-style witch hunt until Paul Ryan is reduced to hiding in someone's basement and crapping in a bucket.
Anyway Nate Silver is trying to figure out whether the bad guys can pull off their idgit Apocalypse, and God bless him for it, even though honestly, sometimes I wish he'd stop, because my stomach lining can't take this. Nate says that they currently have between a 12% and 17% of seizing power and starting a racist crackdown against every group that doesn't match their genetic ideal, which is Steve Bannon, who resembles a giant bleached garden slug. Some of you think I'm exaggerating. I am not.
Their chances vary from day to day and sometimes from hour to hour. The reason for this is because our electoral college system gives the Nazis and klansmen in some states more power to influence a presidential race than the people scheming to refight the Civil War in other states.
Right now Florida is the state most likely to cast the decisive vote in the election. We're in luck because 49.1% of Floridians are decent and halfway intelligent people, and they make up for the 45.1% of the state who literally shouldn't receive CPR, because they'd just use their second chance at life to murder women and Latinos, and probably imprison Muslim citizens as well. So Florida's holding on, but just barely. Pennsylvania, another electoral powerhouse, has a wider margin between dignified human beings and the Wehrmacht LARPers who want to ruin it for the rest of us. Ohio has a thinner line between the decent and the depraved, and so does Iowa.
Just a few states, and the margins aren't that big.
The problem is - and here's where FiveThirtyEight really becomes terrifying when you check it every fifteen minutes, like I do - there seems to be a small but significant number of people in the middle who jump from camp to camp depending on the latest gossip on Politico, the weather, the color of Wolf Blitzer's tie, their fantasy football team, their bowels, and who knows or cares what other factors.
How do you not grasp that one of the two candidates is a complicated, flawed, but nonetheless qualified politician with years of experience, and the other is a racist reality show clown? How do you not see the difference between real policy ideas and a jumble of catchphrases from 1980's action films? It's understandable that some people are good and some are clearly just terrible... but how can you be on the fence about whether there's a difference? I don't get it, but it's a fact of math and history. The sort who stay home, don't follow the world around them... the kind of people who believe in personal angels, Scientology, or that Jill Stein is a credible choice actually exist in enough numbers to matter.
This is why Nate's figures are jumping. The most morally deformed people in the country are trying to get total control, and the only thing that stands in their way are the disconnected, the ignorant, and the deluded. And at any moment some of these fools playing pickle with catastrophe are either stumbling toward it, or moving away, but without knowing how or why.
So this election's not all that different from the others, when you think about it.
It just might be the last.
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Open Thread - Here's Your Hat What's Your Hurry? - [image: Open Thread - Here's Your Hat What's Your Hurry?] @bluegal I think a hat is the way to go. pic.twitter.com/y4M57Sy5Um — Karl Laun (@h8socialmedia97...